Poker Odds for dummies
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Poker Odds for dummies
I was bored in math so I did some probability problems and found out the following odds, they may surprise/help you in poker. (Note: Probability of x event occurring = P(x))
Note #2: Many poker sites won't let you calculate odds unless you know other players hands. These probabilities assume you don't know anyone else's cards and therefore each card has an exactly equal chance of comming up (which isn't true with pp poker, but oh well)
Pre-flop odds:
P (Getting Pockets)= 5.88%
P (Getting suited cards)= 23.53%
P (Getting Connectors)= 15.69%
P (Getting suited connectors)= 3.69%
Flushes
P (Hitting a flush with 2 suited cards)= 6.4% Note: Flush could mean that either 3, 4, or 5 cards of same suit come up
P (Hitting flush with suited cards plus 1 of same suit on flop) = 28.62%
P (Hitting flush with suited cards plus 2 of same suit on flop)= 72.89%
P (Hitting a flush with suited pockets and 2 more cards of same suit by turn; rivering a flush)= 28.62%
P (Hitting a flush with 1 card of suit in pocket and getting 3 more by flop and rivering the flush)= 4.67%
3 and 4 of a kinds
P (Hitting a 3rd for 3 of a kind, starting with pockets)= 1.63%
P (Hitting a 3rd AND 4th for 4 of a kind, starting with pockets) = 0.82%
P (One of your non pocket pair cards hits a four of a kind)= .102%
P (A four of a kind comes up on board) = .028%
Royal Flushes
P (Royal flush with 2 necessary cards preflop i.e. AK clubs)= .051%
P (Royal flush with 1 necessary card i.e. Q hearts)= .00217%
Full Houses
P (Hitting a full house starting with pockets)= 0.35%
P (Hitting a full house with a non-pair pre-flop hand)= 2.06%
Straits
P (A strait comming up on board without any numbers being a card in your hand)= .483%
P (A strait comming up on board with 1 of your pocket cards being one of the same numerical value as 1 in strait)= .362%
P (A strait comming up on board with both of your pocket cards being of same numerical value as 1 or 2 cards in strait)= .272%
P (Hitting a strait using only 1 of your pocket cards)= 5.556%
P (Hitting a strait using both of your pocket cards)= 21.24% (This assumes you already have 2 connectors)
P (Getting 2 cards that connectors then hitting the strait)= 3.33%
More to come if requested
P.S. if you want to see my math which is excessively complicated I will show it to you to prove I'm not faking
Note #2: Many poker sites won't let you calculate odds unless you know other players hands. These probabilities assume you don't know anyone else's cards and therefore each card has an exactly equal chance of comming up (which isn't true with pp poker, but oh well)
Pre-flop odds:
P (Getting Pockets)= 5.88%
P (Getting suited cards)= 23.53%
P (Getting Connectors)= 15.69%
P (Getting suited connectors)= 3.69%
Flushes
P (Hitting a flush with 2 suited cards)= 6.4% Note: Flush could mean that either 3, 4, or 5 cards of same suit come up
P (Hitting flush with suited cards plus 1 of same suit on flop) = 28.62%
P (Hitting flush with suited cards plus 2 of same suit on flop)= 72.89%
P (Hitting a flush with suited pockets and 2 more cards of same suit by turn; rivering a flush)= 28.62%
P (Hitting a flush with 1 card of suit in pocket and getting 3 more by flop and rivering the flush)= 4.67%
3 and 4 of a kinds
P (Hitting a 3rd for 3 of a kind, starting with pockets)= 1.63%
P (Hitting a 3rd AND 4th for 4 of a kind, starting with pockets) = 0.82%
P (One of your non pocket pair cards hits a four of a kind)= .102%
P (A four of a kind comes up on board) = .028%
Royal Flushes
P (Royal flush with 2 necessary cards preflop i.e. AK clubs)= .051%
P (Royal flush with 1 necessary card i.e. Q hearts)= .00217%
Full Houses
P (Hitting a full house starting with pockets)= 0.35%
P (Hitting a full house with a non-pair pre-flop hand)= 2.06%
Straits
P (A strait comming up on board without any numbers being a card in your hand)= .483%
P (A strait comming up on board with 1 of your pocket cards being one of the same numerical value as 1 in strait)= .362%
P (A strait comming up on board with both of your pocket cards being of same numerical value as 1 or 2 cards in strait)= .272%
P (Hitting a strait using only 1 of your pocket cards)= 5.556%
P (Hitting a strait using both of your pocket cards)= 21.24% (This assumes you already have 2 connectors)
P (Getting 2 cards that connectors then hitting the strait)= 3.33%
More to come if requested
P.S. if you want to see my math which is excessively complicated I will show it to you to prove I'm not faking
Last edited by Chipps on Thu 04 Dec 2008, 2:51 am; edited 4 times in total
Chipps- Forum Post King
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Re: Poker Odds for dummies
Thanks K, Yes math is surprisingly boring when the teacher gets sick -_-. If you guys want something weird I can probably figure it out, but straits are alot tougher than they should be so I'll get to them eventually.
Chipps- Forum Post King
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Age : 32
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Registration date : 2008-08-11
Re: Poker Odds for dummies
Not too hard, if you have time I will.
Chipps- Forum Post King
- Number of posts : 910
Age : 32
Crew : The Sage Coastguard
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Registration date : 2008-08-11
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